The Nightly Bullpen Ledger
Arsonists & Firemen
The single most dramatic bullpen win-probability swing of the night — the lead that got torched, or the jam that got escaped — plus the full ledger. Built from Statcast win probability and refreshed every morning.
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How it’s scored. A reliever’s swing is his win-probability added (WPA) over his plate appearances — the standard measure, which counts only his own pitching. The 93% → 15% levels are the team’s win probability when he entered and when he left. The hero is whichever appearance moved win probability most, in either direction; a genuinely quiet night stays quiet.