Independent Baseball Analysis Fri, July 10, 2026
Called Third
The Leadoff — Conventional Wisdom, Tested

Same Stuff, Different Brain

A starter’s edge over his own stuff repeats at 0.59 and two opposite methods measure it identically (0.91). It isn’t location, sequencing, the park, or the catcher. A real skill worth ~26 runs a season — that resists every mechanism we tested.

Starting Pitchers · 11 min read
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Fig.1 — Called-strike rate by location
2025 baseline · inside → away
A polished editorial baseball analytics scene with a strike-zone study, scorebook marks, and pitch-tracking traces on a clean white desk.

The rulebook box never moves. The shadow zone around it does — and it tightens when the batter has two strikes.

By the Numbers
3M
Pitches analyzed
12
Seasons of Statcast
83
Umpires graded
39
Investigations published

The Investigations

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Relievers

What’s Real and What’s Noise in the Bullpen Ledger

How a reliever throws repeats year to year; what the bullpen ledger credits him for barely does. A reliever’s velocity carries over at 0.95 and his whiff rate at 0.63, but his win-probability output carries over at just 0.13 — and within a single season it correlates with itself at only 0.17. We made two independent methods fight over it across 177 relievers. The skill is real and durable; the scoreboard is nearly random. The blown save is a true account of what happened, not a verdict on the pitcher.

June 30, 2026 · 9 min read
Relievers

The Firemen the Save Stat Can’t See

83% of the win probability relievers create happens outside save situations — the save stat watches the smallest slice of the bullpen. We added up the wins relievers actually bank across 8,092 relief appearances, then made two independent methods fight over the names. Colin Holderman has been one of the most valuable relievers in baseball this year with zero saves; value and save credit correlate at just 0.22. We name the hidden firemen on win-probability magnitude, never on rank — because at a half-season the order is noise.

June 30, 2026 · 9 min read
Fielding

The Fielder’s Fingerprint: Two Gloves, Same OAA, Opposite Skills

Outs Above Average gives every fielder one number; it hides a direction. We split five seasons of directional OAA into the outs a fielder earns charging in versus covering deep — his “tilt” — and made two independent methods fight over it. The tilt is a real, repeatable skill (YoY r=0.28, ~0.29 at short, center, and left) that has nothing to do with sprint speed (r=0.04), and OAA averages it away: 37 same-position pairs in 2025 had matching OAA and opposite gloves. Lindor charges in, Baez covers deep — same number, opposite craft. The honest limit: it’s a fingerprint, not a forecast.

June 26, 2026 · 9 min read
The Long Read

A Bad Start Is Forever. A Good One Isn’t.

Five seasons: a bad first half is forever, a good one isn’t. The cellar’s first half predicts its second (R2=0.33); the penthouse’s barely does (0.07). And you know by Memorial Day.

The findingTeams
33% vs 7%

How much of a team’s second half its first half explains — if it’s in the cellar (R2=0.33) versus the penthouse (0.07). A bad start sticks (82% stay buried); a good one leaks (only 67% hold). The signal locks in by ~game 40.

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Explore the Data

Game Reports Umpire Profiles ABS Challenges Pitcher Profiles Hitter Directory Team Profiles Zone Explorer Count Calculator Open Explore →

One investigation a week. No hot takes, just the receipts.

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