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Independent Baseball Analysis Fri, July 10, 2026
Called Third

Swing Gear is the context-adjusted two-strike “brake” — a stable descriptive signature of how hard a hitter downshifts, not a predictive grade. Why the brake is mostly the pitch → Click any hitter for the full profile and three-season trend.

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Swing Gear percentile: higher = brakes harder with two strikes. Bat speed Δ is the context-adjusted change, already netting out the slower, softer pitches hitters see with two strikes. Full methodology →

April 2026 Sell List archived projection · Apr 26

April hot starts are mostly noise — only 10% of past top-5 hot starters sustained 85% of their April pace. We ran two independent projection models on every 2026 hitter (50+ PA) through April 26 and named the six fakes, six sleepers, and one NPB carry. A frozen snapshot, not a live leaderboard — next re-run at the All-Star break. Read the full Sell List →

April 2026 projection static · April 26, 2026

What you're looking at: Six fakes (sell), one carry (hold), six sleepers (buy). Each row shows the preseason baseline, April pace, and rest-of-season projection from two independently cross-verified regression models run on data through April 26.

This is a frozen projection — not an auto-updating leaderboard. Re-runs happen at milestones; the next is queued for the All-Star break (Jul 14, 2026). For the latest hitter discipline data, see the Coaching Gap analysis.
league avg .320.300.350.400.450.500.550g22 (April)g50g100g162 (full)Trout '22.428Judge '25.48918 of 20 collapsed.Only Trout '22 and Judge '25 sustained ≥ 85% of pace.
Hover any line for player details. (Tap on mobile.)
All 20 player-seasons that led 22-game wOBA in 2022-2025 (top 5 per season). Lines show the cumulative running wOBA at g22, g50, g100, and g162 — interior points are computed from the actual April + ROS data, not made up. Median full-season decline: -0.135 wOBA — roughly the gap between an MVP candidate and a league-average bat. Source: research/hot-start-half-life/data/noise_floor.json.

Hot-start half-life across history: how many of last decade's top-5 April hitters sustained their pace? Most didn't.

sell6 names
hot but regresses to baseline
Andy Pages
LAD
-1
vs prior
Prior .331April .403Proj .330
Ben Rice
NYY
+1
vs prior
Prior .345April .500Proj .346
Mike Trout
LAA
+8
vs prior
Prior .362April .425Proj .370
Aaron Judge
NYY
-7
vs prior
Prior .402April .435Proj .395
Corbin Carroll
ARI
+8
vs prior
Prior .380April .421Proj .388
Max Muncy
LAD
+10
vs prior
Prior .355April .407Proj .365
~hold1 name
above baseline with caveats
Munetaka Murakami
CWS
+57
vs prior
Prior .291April .418Proj .348
NPB rookie; prior is league-average proxy
buy6 names
above baseline, under the radar
Jac Caglianone
LAA
+70
vs prior
Prior .240April .320Proj .310
Everson Pereira
NYY
+87
vs prior
Prior .220April .411Proj .307
Jorge Barrosa
ARI
+81
vs prior
Prior .184April .322Proj .265
Samuel Basallo
BAL
+66
vs prior
Prior .246April .334Proj .312
Coby Mayo
BAL
+41
vs prior
Prior .263April .282Proj .304
Brady House
WSH
+45
vs prior
Prior .255April .298Proj .300
Prior (preseason baseline)April (current pace)Projected (R3 model verdict)Badge = Projected − Prior, in wOBA points. The actual signal: how much the model updates above your preseason expectation.
Sleeper relievers (4)
Antonio Senzatela (COL) • Daniel Lynch (KC) • John King (TEX) • Caleb Kilian (CHC)

Buy / Hold / Sell scoreboard for April 2026. Delta column = projected vs prior. SELL = April was noise, BUY = real above-baseline player.

Analysis as of April 26, 2026 · 50+ PA threshold · Dual-agent projection (Claude + Codex, R3)

Research tracker

The Coaching Gap

The CalledThird research finds a +0.04 wOBA edge for low-chase hitters against predictable MLB pitchers, replicating across all four baseline seasons, 2022–25. The pulse below tracks the live 2026 spread against that four-season baseline.

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Read the full analysis: The Coaching Gap →