The Leadoff — Conventional Wisdom, Tested

A Bad Start Is Forever. A Good One Isn't.

Five seasons: a bad first half is forever, a good one isn't. The cellar's first half predicts its second (R2=0.33); the penthouse's barely does (0.07). And you know by Memorial Day.

Teams · 8 min read

Read the analysis →

Fig.1 — Called-strike rate by location
2025 baseline · inside → away

The rulebook box never moves. The shadow zone around it does — and it tightens when the batter has two strikes.

By the Numbers

Pitches analyzed

Seasons of Statcast

Umpires graded

Investigations published

The Investigations

All analysis →

Baserunning

The Jump Tax: The Steal Is a Decision, Not a Physique

Josh Naylor is among the slowest runners in baseball and stole 22 bases in 23 tries in 2025. Not with his legs, and not with a big lead -- his resting lead is 3rd-percentile -- but with an ambush: on the pitches he picks, his lead jumps to the 97th percentile, the biggest standing-to-go swing in the game. We decomposed the stolen base across 70 qualified runners with two independent methods over three rounds. The jump and the legs are real, separable, remarkably repeatable skills (the jump persists year over year at 0.79) -- but neither predicts who actually banks steal value. That is conversion, which tracks run value at r=0.87 and barely repeats. Single-season steal value is ~44% small-sample noise. There are two ways to be elite -- pure speed (Buxton) or pure ambush (Soto, Naylor) -- and they bank the same runs.

June 21, 2026 · 11 min read

Bat Tracking

The Adjustable Swing: Hitters Have a Dial. It Isn't Wired to Anything.

Statcast started measuring the shape of a swing in 2025 — the attack angle — and the instruction industry turned it into a product. So we tested the premise: do hitters adjust their swing shape to the pitch, and does it help? The first half is true and genuinely cool — hitters have a 'dial,' steepening ~10° on low pitches and flattening on high ones, and how much they turn it is one of the most reliable, year-over-year-stable traits in hitting (split-half 0.94; two independent methods agree on who at r=0.99). The second half isn't: the dial adds no power (its effect can't be told from zero once you know a hitter's bat speed and average swing shape), and it doesn't save contact either — the more adjustable hitters whiff slightly more, worst at the zone extremes where matching your plane is supposed to help. 'Ideal attack angle rate,' the marketed metric, is ~88% bat speed. The least-adjustable qualified hitter in baseball is Juan Soto. Two independent methods, two adversarial review rounds; the cross-review caught and killed a contamination bug before it could ship.

June 16, 2026 · 11 min read

Pitchers

The Arm-Angle Gambit: We Went Looking for the Cheat Code. We Found a Tax.

Pitchers across baseball are dropping their arm slots, chasing the pitch-lab promise that a lower release unlocks a sweeper and a new level. We priced the gambit within-pitcher across 374 arms, two independent methods, two adversarial review rounds. The slot credit is indistinguishable from zero five different ways — and the study's most interesting number (+0.28 runs/100 for the bundled repertoire change) died in cross-review as target leakage; rebuilt clean, both methods land at ≈+0.03, the same as pitchers who never moved. The one effect that survives: droppers lose an average 0.46 inches of four-seam ride (10 of 15, Wilcoxon p=0.011) while stable arms gained. The scoreboard among the 16 droppers: nine better, seven worse — a coin flip. Early-signal by design; full re-test queued for the All-Star break.

June 10, 2026 · 11 min read

The Long Read

The Two-Strike Brake Belongs to the Pitcher, Not the Hitter

Everyone says hitters 'shorten up' with two strikes. Bat tracking says ⅔ to ~85% of the bat-speed drop is the pitch they're thrown, not a choice. The small real adjustment is stable but predicts nothing new.

The findingBat Tracking

⅔–85%

of the famous two-strike bat-speed 'brake' is the pitch a hitter is thrown, not a deliberate slowdown. The small real adjustment is a stable signature (YoY r=0.73) but adds ~0 predictive value.

Read the analysis →

Explore the Data

Game Reports Umpire Profiles ABS Challenges Pitcher Profiles Hitter Profiles Zone Explorer Count Calculator Open Explore →

One investigation a week. No hot takes, just the receipts.

CalledThird Weekly lands in your inbox during the season. Under 500 words — we respect your time.

Or follow on Twitter/X · Bluesky